Emissions Gap Report 2017: what is in it for Africa?

The UN Environment’s Emissions Gap report (eighth edition) has been released ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn. Interestingly, national pledges for emission cuts towards 2030 as enshrined in the Paris Agreement would only bring the world to only one-third of the expected reductions. How does this gap get closed? What should Africa do?

The Paris Agreement looks to limit global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius, with a more ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius also on the table. Meeting these targets would reduce the likelihood of severe climate impacts that could damage human health, livelihoods and economies across the globe. For the world's most vulnerable, there is no other way of looking at this situation of negative climate change impacts. But do they really have a voice?

Yes! Africa and the rest of the world that are highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change do have a voice and must be heard. We must seek new ways of doing things. We must go with our ideas, clearer ideas, to the table for discussion. We must always go prepared to negotiations and be forward-looking in our presentations. We must build synergies and look for whoever is willing to be part of a move towards saving humanity to be on our side to fight this.

African governments must engage their colleagues in the developing world. We have for a long time focused on adaptation to climate change and we will not change it in the foreseeable future. But we must also get actively involved in the mitigation discussion. We must engage whoever is willing to listen and help to urgently pursue actions that will bring deeper and more-rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

How do we achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through our agriculture, for example? What about other sectors such as energy, forestry, industry and transport? What can technology do to help us to reduce green house gas emissions in Africa? Where is the technology and how do we get it? There is always the point of investment in solar energy, efficient appliances, efficient mass transport systems, afforestation and stopping deforestation. These are areas that we can take charge of and pull our resources together to make a difference in our lives and that of the whole world.

The time has come. Let's stand to be counted. We are not doing it for some people; we are saving our own lives. 

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Signing the Paris climate deal

"Every year the problems are getting worse. We are at the limits. If I may use a strong word I would say that we are at the limits of suicide." - Pope Francis.

Arguably the most relevant meeting of world leaders in recent times is what took place in December 2015. That was the Paris climate conference (COP21). The hype prior to the meeting lived up to the billing as 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. To me, the COP21 in Pariss was the most important and meaningful gathering in recent times.

The Paris agreement set out a global action plan to put the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C. One will say this has taken too long in coming. But it is true that it is better late than never. And getting things done in the global arena is very, and I mean V-E-R-Y, different from how I  run my home. This Paris agreement that is being lauded is due to enter into force in 2020. What will we doing from 2016 - 2020? That is a legitimate question to ask but not so easy to answer, it seems. What I can guess will happen in between getting the agreement and the agreement coming into force may include the following

1. A meeting
2. Another meeting
3. One more meeting
4. Many more meetings
5. A final meeting to discuss how to conclude

Whilst these meetings are going on, more Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) will be getting into the atmosphere.

The first meeting
On 22 April 2016, the first meeting was held. It was a really big show for climate change. At least 34 countries representing 49% of greenhouse gas emissions formally joined the agreement, or committed to joining the agreement as early as possible this year that high-profile signing ceremony at the United Nations. Now, the historic Paris agreement has started moving closer to the critical threshold for becoming operational faster than expected. This is good news!

But the Paris agreement will only come into force when countries representing at least 55% of total greenhouse gases and 55% of the world's population join the agreement. When one looks at the countries that produce most of the worlds GHGs, China, USA, Russia, India, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Indonesia, Australia and Argentina will come up. So, if these countries that together produce about 60% of the world's GHGs sign the agreement, we will be moving faster. But things do not work so smooth when it comes to climate change committments. China, which accounts for about 20% of global emissions, says it would finalise domestic procedures to join the agreement before the G20 meeting in September. Other industrialised countries offered similar pledges to submit the agreement for approval to parliament. Fasten your seat-belts and keep your fingers crossed.

The talked about picture
A picture of USA Secretary of State John Kerry signing the Paris agreement with his granddaughter in his arms has been the most talked about picture from the grand signing ceremony. That picture really stole the show from Leonardo DiCaprio and all the over 170 world leaders who were at the UN  headquarters to sign the climate change agreement. Mr Kerry's adorable 2-year-old granddaughter Isabel was one of 197 children present at the event to represent the countries that had adopted the agreement.


That picture is just awesome. It brings two things to my mind:

1. the climate change debate has usually focused on our future and what is a better representation of this by the picture of Mr Kerry holding Isabel whilst signing the agreement!
2. the climate issues usually get over-simplified as 'we are doing it for our children and grandchildren' and eventually we do not do it. This is simply because in truth we do not really care so much for our children and grandchildren like we do for ourselves.

The challenge which climate change poses is for now. Let's understand it as such. It is affecting us now. What we do now is what we do for ourselves.

The Journey has started
The journey has started well. All hands on deck. Let's do this for ourselves.

"The challenge is to save ourselves, not someone else, but ourselves." - Peter M. Christian, President of Micronesia 

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Climate Change and Poverty

"There has never been a more important time to address rural poverty in developing countries. It looks likely that global food security and climate change will be among the key issues of the 21st century. As agricultural producers and custodians of a large share of the world's natural resources, poor rural people have key roles to play, contributing not only to global food security and economic growth, but also to climate change mitigation efforts." – Kanayo Nwanze, President of the International Fund for Agricultural Development

On November 8 2015, The World Bank has released a new report titled, "Shock Waves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty", and indeed it sends 'shock waves'. But can it be said that this is totally new news? NO! The impact of climate change on poverty across the globe is something that is very well documented.

The World Bank report, "Shock Waves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty" shows that climate change is an acute threat to poorer people across the world. And of course the usual places get a mention, – Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia – the poorest regions of the world. The poorest regions of the world will be hit the hardest. The new report states that climate change has the power to push more than 100 million people back into poverty over the next fifteen years, i.e., by 2030! This is what hits me hard, shakes me badly and indeed send the 'shock waves' through my body.

The world has been fighting with poverty and climate change. It is arguably the two biggest issues confronting the world now. How do we end poverty or reduce it significantly and at also address climate change. These two issues of poverty and climate change cannot be addressed exclusive of each other. Not that climate change is that which will make people poor. No. There has been many poor people and countries even before climate change became a very topical issue engaging the minds of all who care. But climate change has the potential to worsen an already bad situation.

So how will climate change affect poverty reduction? Let's consider two critical ones. The world bank study points out that:

• Without action, climate change would likely spark higher agricultural prices and could threaten food security in poorer regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Take most of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa, almost all have their economies heavily dependent on agriculture. So when the impacts of climate change tend to be negative on agriculture, it means bad news for source of income, food security, nutrition, jobs, livelihoods and foreign exchange. "Shock Waves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty" estimate that by 2030, crop yield losses could mean that food prices would be 12% higher on average in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is not something to fold the arms and watch. Take any typical poor household in Kenya, Ghana, Ethiopia, Lesotho, they may already be spending more than half of their income on food, not to think about education, clothing, healthcare, transportation, rent, utilities, etc. Such families are already at their breaking point and cannot afford to pay more for food. So, it is easy to understand that if nothing is done, most of Sub-Saharan Africa is staring malnutrition in the face. Malnutrition is coming to us and although we refuse to welcome him, he will come nonetheless, unless serious action is taken. 

• Climate change also will magnify many threats to health, as poor people are more susceptible to climate-related diseases such as malaria and diarrhea. At the global level, warming of 2-3°C could increase the number of people at risk for malaria by up to 5%, or more than 150 million more people affected. Diarrhea would be more prevalent, and increased water scarcity would have an effect on water quality and hygiene. This is not good news at all. The result would be an estimated 48,000 additional deaths among children under the age of 15 resulting from diarrheal illness by 2030. Juxtapose this on a health system that is already on its knees in most of Sub-Saharan Africa. this is not good news.

The new report points out a very important fact, "poverty reduction is not a one-way street. Many people exit or fall back into poverty each year ." So, the work is not a simple one. It is not one that starts today and ends tomorrow, just like that. It is not a linear equation but a very complicated multi-lateral equation that demands more minds and great effort. The world needs to proceed with high urgency. The poorer a people are, the lower their adaptive capacity and the more vulnerable they are to the negative effects of climate change. And the impacts of climate change are expected to increase, judging from the trajectory the world is moving in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.

As the world meets in Paris this December 2015, I sincerely hope and pray that a good deal will come out of the meeting. COP 21 should be a turning point. As the world transitions from Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), may Paris bring the world something sustainable.

Less argument in Paris.

“Men argue. Nature acts.” ― Voltaire

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